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Canada

Jonquière


MP elect: Mario Simard (BQ)

Latest projection: May 11, 2025
BQ likely

Candidates | Jonquière


Liberal William Van Tassel
Conservative Fanny Boulanger
NDP Lise Garon
Green Marie-Josee Yelle
Bloc Quebecois Mario Simard*
PPC Patrick Gaudreault

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.


Jonquière 40% ± 5% BQ 30% ± 5% CPC 26% ± 5% LPC BQ 2025 40.1% 338Canada vote projection | May 11, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Jonquière 99% BQ 1% CPC <1% LPC Odds of winning | May 11, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Jonquière

LPC 26% ± 5% CPC 30% ± 5% BQ 40% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Jonquière 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC BQ May 11, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 48% CPC 32% LPC 10% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 47% CPC 33% LPC 11% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 46% CPC 33% LPC 11% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 47% CPC 31% LPC 12% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 45% CPC 31% LPC 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 44% CPC 31% LPC 16% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 43% CPC 31% LPC 17% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 41% CPC 31% LPC 19% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 40% CPC 32% LPC 19% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 40% CPC 31% LPC 20% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 39% CPC 31% LPC 21% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 39% CPC 31% LPC 22% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 38% CPC 31% LPC 22% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 39% CPC 31% LPC 22% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 39% CPC 30% LPC 22% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 39% CPC 30% LPC 22% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 38% CPC 29% LPC 24% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 38% CPC 29% LPC 24% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 37% CPC 30% LPC 25% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 37% CPC 30% LPC 25% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 36% CPC 31% LPC 25% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 35% CPC 31% LPC 26% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 36% CPC 31% LPC 26% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 35% CPC 31% LPC 26% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 35% CPC 32% LPC 27% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 35% CPC 31% LPC 28% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 35% CPC 31% LPC 27% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 35% CPC 31% LPC 27% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 35% CPC 31% LPC 28% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 35% CPC 31% LPC 28% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 35% CPC 31% LPC 28% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 36% CPC 31% LPC 27% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 35% CPC 31% LPC 28% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 35% CPC 32% LPC 27% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 35% CPC 32% LPC 27% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 35% CPC 32% LPC 27% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 35% CPC 32% LPC 26% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 35% CPC 32% LPC 27% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 35% CPC 32% LPC 27% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 35% CPC 32% LPC 27% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 35% CPC 32% LPC 27% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 36% CPC 32% LPC 27% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 35% CPC 32% LPC 26% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 36% CPC 32% LPC 27% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 36% CPC 32% LPC 26% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 36% CPC 33% LPC 26% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 36% CPC 33% LPC 25% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 35% CPC 33% LPC 25% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 35% CPC 34% LPC 25% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 35% CPC 34% LPC 25% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 36% CPC 33% LPC 25% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 40% CPC 30% LPC 26% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 40% CPC 30% LPC 26% 2025-05-11 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Jonquière

LPC <1% CPC 1% NDP <1% BQ 99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ May 11, 2025 2025-01-12 BQ 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 BQ 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 BQ 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 BQ 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 BQ 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 BQ 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 BQ 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 BQ 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 BQ 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 BQ 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 BQ 93% CPC 7% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 BQ 93% CPC 7% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 BQ 92% CPC 8% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 BQ 93% CPC 7% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 BQ 94% CPC 6% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 BQ 95% CPC 5% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 BQ 95% CPC 4% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 BQ 95% CPC 5% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 BQ 92% CPC 8% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 BQ 88% CPC 11% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 BQ 82% CPC 17% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 BQ 79% CPC 20% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 BQ 83% CPC 15% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 BQ 78% CPC 20% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 BQ 72% CPC 25% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 BQ 71% CPC 24% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 BQ 75% CPC 22% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 BQ 76% CPC 20% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 BQ 73% CPC 23% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 BQ 71% CPC 24% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 BQ 77% CPC 19% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 BQ 78% CPC 18% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 BQ 74% CPC 22% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 BQ 72% CPC 25% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 BQ 70% CPC 27% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 BQ 67% CPC 31% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 BQ 67% CPC 31% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 BQ 67% CPC 31% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 BQ 67% CPC 30% LPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 BQ 71% CPC 26% LPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 BQ 70% CPC 27% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 BQ 74% CPC 24% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 BQ 71% CPC 27% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 BQ 75% CPC 23% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 BQ 78% CPC 21% LPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 BQ 70% CPC 29% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 BQ 67% CPC 33% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 BQ 64% CPC 35% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 BQ 60% CPC 40% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 BQ 62% CPC 38% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 BQ 65% CPC 35% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 BQ 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 BQ 99% CPC 1% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 ▼ Trudeau resigns ▼ Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Jonquière



2019 2021 2025 Proj. BQ 40% ± 5% 36.8% 43.1% 40.1% CPC 30% ± 5% 21.1% 28.3% 30.2% LPC 26% ± 5% 16.8% 20.8% 26.0% NDP 2% ± 1% 22.5% 5.4% 1.8% PPC 1% ± 1% 0.9% 0.0% 1.0% GPC 1% ± 1% 2.0% 1.7% 0.9%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.
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